The Escalating Challenges of the US–Canada Trade War and the Breakdown of Bilateral Relations

September 30, 2026

As per previous blog entries, I am particularly proud of a lifetime committed to promoting and celebrating Canada’s relationship with the US.

I grew up in a border community, have enjoyed several close personal and professional relationships with Americans, and completed part of my university education at the State University of New York College at Plattsburgh, New York. Growing up, Upstate NY, Vermont and the North Country was my home away from home, enjoying countless family memories at our family camp on Lower Chateaugay Lake in the Adirondak Park. Later in life, I was privileged to work side-by-side with our neighbours in Maine and New England on a range of cross border energy and economic development initiatives, cumulating in receiving a trade innovation award from Governor John B. Baldacci and the Maine International Trade Center as part of a cross-border Bangor, Maine and Saint John, NB trade initiative. I was also proud to be nominated by the US Consulate in Halifax and selected by the US State Department as one of three Canadian participants on an International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP) to Washington, Houston and Denver focusing on US-Canada energy policy issues.

Celebrating what brings Canada and the US together is simply part of my DNA, which is why I am heartbroken by what has taken place over the past few years. Simply put, we have lost a close and trusted friend. The relationship between Canada and the United States — long considered one of the most stable and mutually beneficial partnerships in the world — has entered its most turbulent period in decades. What began as a series of targeted tariffs has evolved into a full‑scale trade war, eroding trust, disrupting supply chains, and reshaping the political landscape on both sides of the border. The consequences are no longer abstract policy debates. They are lived realities. By way of example, it is tragic to see products from my home community, including Moosehead beer and Crosby molasses, being outright banned from entry into the US.

The current trade conflict did not emerge overnight. It has been building through successive rounds of tariff escalations, retaliatory measures, and increasingly confrontational rhetoric, including deliberate threats to Canada’s sovereignty. Washington’s new tariff categories targeting Canadian steel, aluminum, agricultural products, and emerging clean‑tech sectors have hit at the core of Canada’s export economy. Ottawa’s countermeasures, though measured, have done little to slow the momentum. Instead, they have hardened political positions and fueled a narrative of grievance that now dominates cross‑border discourse.

What makes this moment particularly dangerous is not simply the economic fallout — it is the breakdown of diplomatic norms that once kept disagreements contained. The US and Canada have always had disputes, but they were historically resolved through respectful negotiation, compromise, and a shared understanding that cooperation was more valuable than conflict. Today, that foundation is cracking — some would argue it is already broken. High‑level meetings are increasingly rare. Joint initiatives have stalled. Longstanding agreements — from energy cooperation to border management — are being re‑examined or quietly abandoned.

This deterioration is felt most acutely in regions like Atlantic Canada, where cross‑border trade, seasonal labour mobility, and shared environmental stewardship are essential. Fishermen, farmers, the forestry sector, manufacturers, and small business owners are confronting rising costs, unpredictable regulations, and shrinking market access. Communities on both sides of the NB-Maine border that rely on trade, tourism and cross‑border family ties are watching familiar patterns of life become increasingly strained.

The breakdown in relations also intersects with broader geopolitical shifts. As the US adopts a more unilateral and protectionist posture, Canada is being forced to diversify its trade relationships, strengthen ties with Europe and Asia, remove inter-provincial trade barriers, and accelerate domestic industrial strategies. While diversification will ultimately benefit Canada, the transition is painful — and the uncertainty is both destabilizing and increasingly stressful. It is creating a significant toll on people, families and communities.

Perhaps the most troubling development is the erosion of trust between our two populations. Anti‑Canadian sentiment in certain US political circles and growing Canadian frustration with American unpredictability are creating a cultural divide that did not exist a decade ago. Border issues — from irregular migration to security cooperation — have become politicized flashpoints rather than shared responsibilities.

The path forward will require more than tariff reductions. It will require rebuilding diplomatic channels, reaffirming shared values, and recognizing that the US–Canada relationship is too important to be left to the whims of political cycles. The stakes are high: economic stability, regional security, and the social fabric of border communities and regions depend on restoring a sense of partnership.

For now, Canadians must navigate a period of profound uncertainty — one that demands resilience, strategic adaptation, and a clear-eyed understanding of how deeply intertwined our future remains with that of our closest neighbour. We need to collectively nurture existing US – Canada cross-border relationships while significantly expanding our trade and business horizons. Here in New Brunswick, we need to continue to advocate for the unrestricted flow of commerce and energy across the NB-Maine border while leveraging the Ports of Saint John and Belledune as global trade gateways. The Saint John Region Chamber of Commerce has thoughtfully coined the term ‘local to global’ as our path to economic sustainability.

As individuals, we have very little influence on what happens in Washington or Ottawa, but I am encouraged by the gestures of goodwill coming from border states, much of it bipartisan. I am also encouraged by the thoughtful reflections of informed cross-border voices such as Frank McKenna, former New Brunswick Premier and Canadian Ambassador to the United States, as well as David L. Cohen, former US Ambassador to Canada.

Let’s hope that 2027 provides a foundation for rebuilding US-Canada relations and restoring trust — it will be a long and difficult journey, but worthy of our collective efforts.